Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Western Kentucky, while the market favors Delaware (51%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Western Kentucky (43%) · Western Kentucky at 50¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Western Kentucky
7
Western Kentucky 43%
$14.4K
$119.29
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWestern Kentucky at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BrotherObamaCTR | Western Kentuckyavg 50¢ | $9.1K | $9.0K | -$91 | 41% 243-345 (588) |
 VeryLucky888 | Delawareavg 50¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$25.56 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
HI hi774c | Delawareavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$139.71 | 52% 4642-4346 (8988) |
UP UpTheBlues | Delawareavg 50¢ | $667.01 | $720.37 | +$53.36 | 59% 44240-30609 (74849) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Western Kentuckyavg 49¢ | $206.99 | $198.46 | -$8.53 | 54% 16731-14038 (30769) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Delawareavg 50¢ | $40.5 | $40.5 | +$0 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 50¢ | $19.12 | $19.31 | +$0.19 | 50% 24824-24520 (49344) |
Invested
$9,100
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$91
Record
41%
243-345 (588)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,540.9
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.56
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$1,746.35
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$139.71
Record
52%
4642-4346 (8988)
Invested
$667.01
Value
$720.37
PnL
+$53.36
Record
59%
44240-30609 (74849)
Invested
$206.99
Value
$198.46
PnL
-$8.53
Record
54%
16731-14038 (30769)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Invested
$19.12
Value
$19.31
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
24824-24520 (49344)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.