Davidson vs. Dayton

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Dayton (64%) · Dayton at 94¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 14

Davidson6¢Dayton94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dayton

Consensus Traders

Dayton 64%

Total Value

$46.1K

Combined PnL

$898.8

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 94.3¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDayton at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dayton

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Davidson6%

Dayton94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dayton7 traders

Total Value$42.3K

Total Shares45,032

Combined PnL+$867.25

Davidson4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares46,892

Combined PnL+$31.55

Dayton — 64%Davidson — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dayton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDavidson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDayton 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dayton 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	Daytonavg 92¢	$35.8K	$36.6K	+$778.1	48% 34-37 (71)
38 38791873984189	Daytonavg 92.5¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$82.95	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
nigiri99CTR	Davidsonavg 7.9¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$32.21	51% 568-535 (1103)
OJ ojg	Daytonavg 87.9¢	$145.54	$144.41	-$1.13	48% 230-247 (477)
PA Pan9X	Daytonavg 93¢	$139.71	$119.16	+$3.39	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
NO NotJump	Daytonavg 50¢	$105	$107.1	+$2.1	52% 833-779 (1612)
FO forecastication4<$100	Daytonavg 92¢	$46	$47	+$1	33% 168-336 (504)
GH ghorrock<$100	Daytonavg 92¢	$38.38	$39.22	+$0.83	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Davidsonavg 15.4¢	$3.08	$3.06	-$0.02	43% 1179-1556 (2735)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Davidsonavg 12.5¢	$2.43	$1.56	-$0.87	— 14-5 (19)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Davidsonavg 5¢	$0.39	$0.62	+$0.23	48% 278-299 (577)

imjustkenisghey

Dayton

Invested

$35,792.86

Value

$36.6K

PnL

+$778.1

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

38791873984189

Dayton

Invested

$5,223.4

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$82.95

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

nigiri99CTR

Davidson

Invested

$3,715.39

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$32.21

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

ojg

Dayton

Invested

$145.54

Value

$144.41

PnL

-$1.13

Record

48%

230-247 (477)

Pan9X

Dayton

Invested

$139.71

Value

$119.16

PnL

+$3.39

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

NotJump

Dayton

Invested

$105

Value

$107.1

PnL

+$2.1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

forecastication4<$100

Dayton

Invested

$46

Value

$47

PnL

+$1

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

ghorrock<$100

Dayton

Invested

$38.38

Value

$39.22

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

13897651CTR<$100

Davidson

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

1179-1556 (2735)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Davidson

Invested

$2.43

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.87

Record

—

14-5 (19)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Davidson

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

Research grade

NeutralDayton at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dayton

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dayton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDavidson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDayton 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dayton 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dayton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.