Colorado State vs. Washington State: O/U 65.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 54¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$241.6

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,950

Combined PnL-$216.03

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,861

Combined PnL-$25.57

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$208.86	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
PR primm	Overavg 52.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$29.55	59% 1075-754 (1829)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$792.83	$759.59	-$33.24	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$445.2	$474.6	+$29.4	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$340.16	$335.18	-$4.98	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$229.4	$229.93	+$0.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.6¢	$110.76	$105.25	-$5.51
PU purplegattoCTR	Underavg 54¢	$254.88	$266.68	+$11.8	68% 2661-1247 (3908)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 53.9¢	$301.68	$266	-$35.68	45% 298-371 (669)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52¢	$182	$161	-$21	41% 498-709 (1207)
NM NM-P	Overavg 52¢	$136.24	$120.52	-$15.72	59% 3902-2685 (6587)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$93.29	$94.33	+$1.04	50% 3988-3981 (7969)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$18.5	$18.69	+$0.18	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$18.15	$18.65	+$0.5	52% 365-331 (696)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$9.85	$10.19	+$0.34	50% 2728-2703 (5431)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$9.1	+$0.1	51% 1007-981 (1988)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$208.86

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

primm

Over

Invested

$1,229.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.55

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$792.83

Value

$759.59

PnL

-$33.24

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$445.2

Value

$474.6

PnL

+$29.4

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$340.16

Value

$335.18

PnL

-$4.98

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

Both legs:

Under$229.449.9¢+$0.53

Over$110.7652.6¢-$5.51

purplegattoCTR

Under

Invested

$254.88

Value

$266.68

PnL

+$11.8

Record

68%

2661-1247 (3908)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$301.68

Value

$266

PnL

-$35.68

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$182

Value

$161

PnL

-$21

Record

41%

498-709 (1207)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$136.24

Value

$120.52

PnL

-$15.72

Record

59%

3902-2685 (6587)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93.29

Value

$94.33

PnL

+$1.04

Record

50%

3988-3981 (7969)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.15

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

365-331 (696)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.85

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

2728-2703 (5431)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

1007-981 (1988)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.