Spread: Washington State (-9.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State (67%) · Washington State at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Washington State97¢Colorado State3¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington State

Consensus Traders

Washington State 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$529.15

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 96.5¢

+83% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Washington State97%

Colorado State4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington State6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,974

Combined PnL-$126.59

Colorado State3 traders

Total Value$285.51

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL-$402.56

Washington State — 67%Colorado State — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWashington State 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington State 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Washington Stateavg 49¢	$490	$500	+$10	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
38 38791873984189	Washington Stateavg 53.2¢	$492.87	$433.34	-$56.82	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
RN1	Washington Stateavg 58¢	$465.16	$376.94	-$88.22	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
PR primmCTR	Colorado Stateavg 42¢	$560.88	$220.37	-$340.51	59% 1075-754 (1829)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Washington Stateavg 47¢	$94.94	$94.94	-$0	48% 416-456 (872)
JU justwinsCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 51¢	$54.05	$56.17	+$2.12	51% 127-123 (250)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Washington Stateavg 61.1¢	$22.48	$30.71	+$8.23	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 53¢	$73.14	$8.97	-$64.17	45% 298-371 (669)
GC GC-P<$100	Washington Stateavg 48¢	$5.24	$5.46	+$0.22	41% 498-709 (1207)

VeryLucky888

Washington State

Invested

$490

Value

$500

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

38791873984189

Washington State

Invested

$492.87

Value

$433.34

PnL

-$56.82

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

RN1

Washington State

Invested

$465.16

Value

$376.94

PnL

-$88.22

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

primmCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$560.88

Value

$220.37

PnL

-$340.51

Record

59%

1075-754 (1829)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Washington State

Invested

$94.94

Value

$94.94

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

416-456 (872)

justwinsCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$54.05

Value

$56.17

PnL

+$2.12

Record

51%

127-123 (250)

topdogbigboi<$100

Washington State

Invested

$22.48

Value

$30.71

PnL

+$8.23

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$73.14

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$64.17

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

GC-P<$100

Washington State

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.22

Record

41%

498-709 (1207)

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWashington State 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington State 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.