Spread: Washington State (-8.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State (100%) · Washington State at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Washington State
5
Washington State 100%
$5.5K
-$54.28
50.5¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralWashington State at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Washington Stateavg 50.5¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$35.79 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Washington Stateavg 50.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$18.49 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Washington Stateavg 50¢ | $87.5 | $87.5 | +$0 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Washington Stateavg 50¢ | $6.72 | $6.72 | +$0 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Washington Stateavg 50¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
Invested
$3,960.33
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$35.79
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,520
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$18.49
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
Invested
$87.5
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.