Spread: Washington State (-7.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Washington State (56%) · Washington State at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Washington State55¢Colorado State45¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Washington State

Consensus Traders

Washington State 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.6

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington State55%

Colorado State46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Washington State5 traders

Total Value$841.92

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL-$28.76

Colorado State4 traders

Total Value$691.81

Total Shares1,411

Combined PnL-$18.84

Washington State — 56%Colorado State — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Washington State) and the top 1000 (6 on Colorado State) disagree here.

ctrWashington State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado State 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Washington Stateavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$45.83	56% 3787-2956 (6743)
└ Washington State leg	Washington Stateavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$80.33
└ Colorado State leg	Colorado Stateavg 49¢	$828.41	$862.91	+$34.5
VeryLucky888	Washington Stateavg 51.9¢	$538	$416.81	-$25.6	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Washington Stateavg 49.5¢	$379.63	$379.67	+$0.03	48% 402-433 (835)
PU purplegattoCTR	Colorado Stateavg 50¢	$258.5	$263.67	+$5.17	68% 2657-1243 (3900)
nigiri99CTR	Colorado Stateavg 51¢	$259.08	$231.14	-$27.94	51% 646-632 (1278)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Colorado Stateavg 50¢	$189.78	$193.58	+$3.8	44% 290-365 (655)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Washington Stateavg 51.7¢	$90.64	$19.69	-$3.54	53% 353-317 (670)
RN1<$100	Washington Stateavg 48¢	$17.76	$17.95	+$0.18	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
GH ghorrock<$100	Washington Stateavg 52¢	$7.65	$7.81	+$0.16	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 48¢	$3.29	$3.43	+$0.14	47% 3580-3963 (7543)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Washington State

Invested

$2,233.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$45.83

Record

56%

3787-2956 (6743)

Both legs:

Washington State$1,385.952¢-$80.33

Colorado State$828.4149¢+$34.5

VeryLucky888

Washington State

Invested

$538

Value

$416.81

PnL

-$25.6

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Washington State

Invested

$379.63

Value

$379.67

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

purplegattoCTR

Colorado State

Invested

$258.5

Value

$263.67

PnL

+$5.17

Record

68%

2657-1243 (3900)

nigiri99CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$259.08

Value

$231.14

PnL

-$27.94

Record

51%

646-632 (1278)

Forecastication2CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$189.78

Value

$193.58

PnL

+$3.8

Record

44%

290-365 (655)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Washington State

Invested

$90.64

Value

$19.69

PnL

-$3.54

Record

53%

353-317 (670)

RN1<$100

Washington State

Invested

$17.76

Value

$17.95

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

ghorrock<$100

Washington State

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Research grade

NeutralWashington State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Washington State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Washington State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Washington State) and the top 1000 (6 on Colorado State) disagree here.

ctrWashington State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedWashington State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado State 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Washington State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.