Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 61.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 56¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 56¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares16,044

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,822

Combined PnL+$359.15

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 46.1¢	$6.2K	$6.6K	+$386.83	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.1¢	$3.9K	$4.7K	+$758.83
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$372
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 55¢	$6.8K	$5.5K	$-1.2K	46% 439-516 (955)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$331.58	57% 247-185 (432)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$270	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$800.92	$805.05	+$56.33	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$108.8	$127.6	+$18.8	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$52.2	$63.8	+$11.6	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$3.12	$5.53	+$2.41	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.6	+$0.1	50% 7036-7035 (14071)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,173.44

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$386.83

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Over$3,937.7346.1¢+$758.83

Under$2,235.7154¢-$372

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$6,779.83

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

439-516 (955)

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$331.58

Record

57%

247-185 (432)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$270

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$800.92

Value

$805.05

PnL

+$56.33

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$108.8

Value

$127.6

PnL

+$18.8

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.2

Value

$63.8

PnL

+$11.6

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.12

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$2.41

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.