Colorado State vs. Utah State: O/U 59.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$79.83

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 88¢

+83% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,706

Combined PnL-$207.02

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,262

Combined PnL+$127.19

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$176.57	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$135	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 48.3¢	$320.29	$288.41	-$31.88	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$71.82	$77.55	+$5.73	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$60.05	$46.24	-$13.81	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 50¢	$51.5	$44.81	-$6.7	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$16.43	$24.76	+$8.33	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 76¢	$3.04	$2.84	-$0.2	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.49	$2.76	+$0.27	54% 4896-4121 (9017)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,876.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$176.57

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$135

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$320.29

Value

$288.41

PnL

-$31.88

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.82

Value

$77.55

PnL

+$5.73

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.05

Value

$46.24

PnL

-$13.81

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$51.5

Value

$44.81

PnL

-$6.7

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$16.43

Value

$24.76

PnL

+$8.33

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.