Spread: Utah State (-8.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State (57%) · Utah State at 79¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31
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Neutral
Utah State
7
Utah State 57%
$16.4K
$-1.6K
51¢ → 79¢
+55% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah State at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ET ethanaz | Utah Stateavg 51¢ | $15.8K | $13.3K | $-2.5K | 52% 669-624 (1293) |
 0xheavy888 | Utah Stateavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.9K | +$860 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Utah Stateavg 50.5¢ | $81.31 | $79.05 | -$2.26 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Colorado Stateavg 32¢ | $32 | $57 | +$25 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Colorado Stateavg 49¢ | $11.27 | $13.11 | +$1.84 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Utah Stateavg 51.2¢ | $6.61 | $5.55 | -$1.06 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Colorado Stateavg 16¢ | $0.95 | $0.95 | +$0 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$15,770.93
Value
$13.3K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
52%
669-624 (1293)
0xheavy888Invested
$2,040
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$860
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$81.31
Value
$79.05
PnL
-$2.26
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$57
PnL
+$25
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$13.11
PnL
+$1.84
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$6.61
Value
$5.55
PnL
-$1.06
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.