Spread: Utah State (-6.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State (17%) · Utah State at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31

Utah State54¢Colorado State46¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah State

Consensus Traders

Utah State 17%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$29.95

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Utah State54%

Colorado State47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah State1 trader

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,474

Combined PnL+$63.73

Colorado State5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,366

Combined PnL-$33.78

Utah State — 17%Colorado State — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado State 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Utah Stateavg 52.4¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$63.73	46% 422-487 (909)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Colorado Stateavg 47¢	$1,000	$989.36	-$10.64	54% 726-611 (1337)
VeryLucky888CTR	Colorado Stateavg 47.5¢	$950	$930	-$20	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 48¢	$52.32	$50.69	-$1.63	54% 2953-2534 (5487)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 47.6¢	$48.48	$47.37	-$1.11	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Colorado Stateavg 48¢	$12.96	$12.56	-$0.4	58% 28303-20884 (49187)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Utah State

Invested

$5,487.34

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$63.73

Record

46%

422-487 (909)

pltrkr111CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.36

PnL

-$10.64

Record

54%

726-611 (1337)

VeryLucky888CTR

Colorado State

Invested

$950

Value

$930

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$52.32

Value

$50.69

PnL

-$1.63

Record

54%

2953-2534 (5487)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$48.48

Value

$47.37

PnL

-$1.11

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Colorado State

Invested

$12.96

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedColorado State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado State 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.