Spread: Utah State (-17.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado State (50%) · Colorado State at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Colorado State
6
Colorado State 50%
$4.2K
$673.78
56.2¢ → 93¢
+66% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralColorado State at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Colorado Stateavg 57¢ | $2.8K | $3.7K | +$947.9 | 54% 56713-48922 (105635) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Utah Stateavg 29¢ | $151.67 | $122.9 | -$28.77 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
TO topdogbigboi | Colorado Stateavg 31.6¢ | $49.58 | $119.99 | +$70.41 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
 hammyandcheeseCTR | Utah Stateavg 60¢ | $300 | $117.5 | -$182.5 | 55% 390-318 (708) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Utah Stateavg 70¢ | $203.62 | $68.38 | -$135.24 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
SH shoemanhere<$100 | Colorado Stateavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $3.83 | +$1.98 | 56% 7101-5484 (12585) |
RN1Invested
$2,770.77
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$947.9
Record
54%
56713-48922 (105635)
Invested
$151.67
Value
$122.9
PnL
-$28.77
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$49.58
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$70.41
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
hammyandcheeseCTRInvested
$300
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$182.5
Record
55%
390-318 (708)
Invested
$203.62
Value
$68.38
PnL
-$135.24
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$3.83
PnL
+$1.98
Record
56%
7101-5484 (12585)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.