Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (93%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Colorado vs. Arizona State: O/U 47.5

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 7.0¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$-14.7K

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 7¢

-84% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares52,227

Combined PnL$-14.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$15.1K	$5.1K	$-10.0K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Overavg 28¢	$3.4K	$1.5K	$-2.0K	49% 451-468 (919)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$2.2K	$619.53	$-1.3K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1,000	$235.29	-$764.7	55% 790-658 (1448)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$393.48	$178.87	-$244.58	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$108.5	-$245
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$39.98	$70.37	+$0.42
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51¢	$158.1	$159.65	+$1.55	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$271.31	$66.79	-$204.52	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$251.04	$48.79	-$202.25	56% 2800-2210 (5010)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 43¢	$244.7	$39.84	-$204.87	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Overavg 39.7¢	$52.42	$15.84	-$36.58	52% 1674-1564 (3238)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$15,086.95

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-10.0K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Over

Invested

$3,424.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

451-468 (919)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$2,208.43

Value

$619.53

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$235.29

PnL

-$764.7

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$393.48

Value

$178.87

PnL

-$244.58

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Invested

$158.1

Value

$159.65

PnL

+$1.55

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$271.31

Value

$66.79

PnL

-$204.52

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$251.04

Value

$48.79

PnL

-$202.25

Record

56%

2800-2210 (5010)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$244.7

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$204.87

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

vibing123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.42

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$36.58

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.