Spread: Arizona State (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona State (60%) · Arizona State at 90¢ · $634 held · ended Nov 8
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Neutral
Arizona State
5
Arizona State 60%
$634.25
$239.87
47.7¢ → 89.5¢
+88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralArizona State at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Arizona State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Arizona Stateavg 47.7¢ | $254.24 | $489.87 | +$235.63 | 49% 797-827 (1624) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Coloradoavg 51¢ | $102 | $104 | +$3 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 47¢ | $19.61 | $19.82 | +$0.21 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 50¢ | $29.87 | $17.84 | +$0.97 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Arizona Stateavg 46¢ | $2.67 | $2.72 | +$0.06 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$254.24
Value
$489.87
PnL
+$235.63
Record
49%
797-827 (1624)
Invested
$102
Value
$104
PnL
+$3
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$19.61
Value
$19.82
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$29.87
Value
$17.84
PnL
+$0.97
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$2.67
Value
$2.72
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.