Spread: Georgia State (-3.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Coastal Carolina (38%) · Coastal Carolina at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Georgia State10¢Coastal Carolina90¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coastal Carolina

Consensus Traders

Coastal Carolina 38%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$754.3

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 90¢

+64% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia State10%

Coastal Carolina90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coastal Carolina3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,981

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Georgia State5 traders

Total Value$496.07

Total Shares2,468

Combined PnL-$504.32

Coastal Carolina — 38%Georgia State — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Coastal Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Coastal Carolina) and the top 1000 (7 on Georgia State) disagree here.

whaleCoastal Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCoastal Carolina 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCoastal Carolina 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Coastal Carolinaavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$548.59	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Coastal Carolinaavg 49¢	$912.78	$1.6K	+$707.87	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
FO fortunekingCTR	Georgia Stateavg 40¢	$752	$244.4	-$507.6	59% 779-545 (1324)
OD OddstormCTR	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$159.12	$159.12	+$0	39% 426-672 (1098)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 50.4¢	$70.42	$70.76	+$0.34	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$10.54	$14.43	+$3.89	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
VeryLucky888CTR	Georgia Stateavg 49.5¢	$2.0K	$7.36	-$0.94	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 60¢	$4.8	$6.96	+$2.16	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

RN1

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$1,265.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$548.59

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0x0A77exmm

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$912.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$707.87

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

fortunekingCTR

Georgia State

Invested

$752

Value

$244.4

PnL

-$507.6

Record

59%

779-545 (1324)

OddstormCTR

Georgia State

Invested

$159.12

Value

$159.12

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$70.42

Value

$70.76

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$10.54

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$3.89

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

VeryLucky888CTR

Georgia State

Invested

$2,008.3

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.94

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

topdogbigboi<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$4.8

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$2.16

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Coastal Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Coastal Carolina) and the top 1000 (7 on Georgia State) disagree here.

whaleCoastal Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCoastal Carolina 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCoastal Carolina 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coastal Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.