Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Coastal Carolina (50%) · Coastal Carolina at 73¢ · $34K held · ended Oct 31

Coastal Carolina73¢Georgia State27¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coastal Carolina

Consensus Traders

Coastal Carolina 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 72.5¢

+78% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Coastal Carolina73%

Georgia State28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coastal Carolina9 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares40,159

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Georgia State9 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares18,764

Combined PnL-$435.56

Coastal Carolina — 50%Georgia State — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coastal Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Georgia State) and the top 1000 (12 on Coastal Carolina) disagree here.

whaleCoastal Carolina 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpGeorgia State 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrCoastal Carolina 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedGeorgia State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Coastal Carolina 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Coastal Carolinaavg 39.5¢	$8.7K	$10.5K	+$1.9K	50% 5881-5972 (11853)
0xheavy888CTR	Georgia Stateavg 60.9¢	$6.7K	$5.8K	-$651.01	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coastal Carolinaavg 39¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$856.1	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Georgia Stateavg 61¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$24.36	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
└ Georgia State leg	Georgia Stateavg 61¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$229.46
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 39¢	$799.89	$594.79	-$205.1
LU LuckyLoo	Coastal Carolinaavg 39¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$339.53	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Georgia Stateavg 60¢	$5.0K	$2.6K	-$402.38	50% 2519-2501 (5020)
RN1	Coastal Carolinaavg 50.9¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$673.05	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Georgia Stateavg 26¢	$424.06	$856.28	+$432.22	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Coastal Carolinaavg 74¢	$412.56	$264.82	-$147.74	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Georgia Stateavg 26¢	$96.2	$194.25	+$98.05	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Georgia Stateavg 60¢	$138	$156.4	+$17.25	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
TimeTravelerCTR	Georgia Stateavg 27.8¢	$69.5	$131.25	+$61.75	41% 1964-2771 (4735)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Coastal Carolinaavg 39¢	$103.74	$126.35	-$17.29	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
HE Herdonia	Coastal Carolinaavg 39¢	$147.43	$109.63	-$37.8	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
AV averagejoetradersARB<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 65.8¢	$65.88	$50.66	-$16	56% 542-427 (969)
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 65.8¢	$41.78	$30.18	-$11.6
└ Georgia State leg	Georgia Stateavg 61.8¢	$24.1	$20.48	-$4.4
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 71¢	$63.14	$45.19	-$18.29	53% 429-386 (815)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 28¢	$44.24	$45.03	+$0.79	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 60.4¢	$39.28	$44.2	+$4.92	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 50¢	$5	$7.55	+$2.55	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
US User7429CTR<$100	Georgia Stateavg 24¢	$2.4	$5.25	+$2.85	55% 8315-6706 (15021)

purplegatto

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$8,684.45

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

50%

5881-5972 (11853)

0xheavy888CTR

Georgia State

Invested

$6,712.39

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$651.01

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

HomeRunHazard

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$3,928

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$856.1

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$2,799.47

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$24.36

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

Both legs:

Georgia State$1,999.5861¢+$229.46

Coastal Carolina$799.8939¢-$205.1

LuckyLoo

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$1,393.86

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$339.53

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Georgia State

Invested

$5,029.69

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$402.38

Record

50%

2519-2501 (5020)

RN1

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$1,664.93

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$673.05

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Georgia State

Invested

$424.06

Value

$856.28

PnL

+$432.22

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$412.56

Value

$264.82

PnL

-$147.74

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

BillBenter2026CTR

Georgia State

Invested

$96.2

Value

$194.25

PnL

+$98.05

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Georgia State

Invested

$138

Value

$156.4

PnL

+$17.25

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

TimeTravelerCTR

Georgia State

Invested

$69.5

Value

$131.25

PnL

+$61.75

Record

41%

1964-2771 (4735)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$103.74

Value

$126.35

PnL

-$17.29

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

Herdonia

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$147.43

Value

$109.63

PnL

-$37.8

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

averagejoetradersARB<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$65.88

Value

$50.66

PnL

-$16

Record

56%

542-427 (969)

Both legs:

Coastal Carolina$41.7865.8¢-$11.6

Georgia State$24.161.8¢-$4.4

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$63.14

Value

$45.19

PnL

-$18.29

Record

53%

429-386 (815)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$44.24

Value

$45.03

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$39.28

Value

$44.2

PnL

+$4.92

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$2.55

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

User7429CTR<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$2.4

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$2.85

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coastal Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Georgia State) and the top 1000 (12 on Coastal Carolina) disagree here.

whaleCoastal Carolina 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpGeorgia State 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrCoastal Carolina 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedGeorgia State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Coastal Carolina 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coastal Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.