Clemson vs. Florida State: O/U 51.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.8K
$73.09
53.1¢ → 55¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$75 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
OD OddstormCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $103.96 | $101.7 | -$2.26 | 39% 419-667 (1086) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $55.55 | $54.54 | -$1.01 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53.5¢ | $36.38 | $36.72 | +$1.36 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,590
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$75
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$103.96
Value
$101.7
PnL
-$2.26
Record
39%
419-667 (1086)
Invested
$55.55
Value
$54.54
PnL
-$1.01
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$36.38
Value
$36.72
PnL
+$1.36
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.