Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Florida State, while the market favors Clemson (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Florida State (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Florida State (80%) · Florida State at 46¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Florida State
5
Florida State 80%
$12.3K
-$119.94
46¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida State at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Clemson 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Florida State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4CTR | Florida Stateavg 46¢ | $6.9K | $6.8K | -$75 | 49% 1166-1197 (2363) |
HI hi774cCTR | Florida Stateavg 46¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$36.18 | 52% 4733-4453 (9186) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Florida Stateavg 46¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$20 | 59% 4052-2864 (6916) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Clemsonavg 51¢ | $297.9 | $309.58 | +$11.68 | 65% 1713-929 (2642) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Florida Stateavg 46¢ | $40.43 | $39.99 | -$0.44 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
Invested
$6,900
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$75
Record
49%
1166-1197 (2363)
Invested
$3,328.85
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$36.18
Record
52%
4733-4453 (9186)
Invested
$1,840
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$20
Record
59%
4052-2864 (6916)
Invested
$297.9
Value
$309.58
PnL
+$11.68
Record
65%
1713-929 (2642)
Invested
$40.43
Value
$39.99
PnL
-$0.44
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.