Clemson vs. Florida State
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Florida State (100%) · Florida State at 67¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Florida State
3
Florida State 100%
1 arb excluded
$9.0K
$121.49
65.9¢ → 67¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida State at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Florida Stateavg 65.9¢ | $7.3K | $7.4K | +$119.93 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Florida Stateavg 66¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$28.38 | 74% 6686-2399 (9085) |
| └ Florida State leg | Florida Stateavg 66¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$18.74 | |
| └ Clemson leg | Clemsonavg 32¢ | $308.64 | $318.29 | +$9.65 | |
HI hi774c<$100 | Florida Stateavg 65¢ | $39.56 | $40.77 | +$1.22 | 52% 4733-4453 (9186) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Florida Stateavg 66¢ | $22.2 | $22.54 | +$0.34 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$7,250.65
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$119.93
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$1,545.48
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$28.38
Record
74%
6686-2399 (9085)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.56
Value
$40.77
PnL
+$1.22
Record
52%
4733-4453 (9186)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$22.54
PnL
+$0.34
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.