Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold The Citadel, while the market favors Mercer (96%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

The Citadel vs. Mercer

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold The Citadel (56%) · The Citadel at 4.5¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

The Citadel5¢Mercer95¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

The Citadel

Consensus Traders

The Citadel 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$2.95

Research grade

AvoidThe Citadel at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

The Citadel

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Mercer 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

The Citadel5%

Mercer96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mercer4 traders

Total Value$47.02

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$9

The Citadel5 traders

Total Value$10.45

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$6.05

Mercer — 44%The Citadel — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986ARB<$100	The Citadelavg 35.6¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$774.72	49% 153-157 (310)
└ The Citadel leg	The Citadelavg 35.6¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$614.21
└ Mercer leg	Merceravg 59.8¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	-$160.51
RL RLWG<$100	Merceravg 59.5¢	$25.25	$26.6	+$4.6	50% 7913-7939 (15852)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Merceravg 66¢	$6.6	$8.9	+$2.3	56% 539-426 (965)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Merceravg 71¢	$6.42	$8.05	+$1.63	53% 427-383 (810)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	The Citadelavg 42¢	$6.86	$5.32	-$1.54	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
13 13897651<$100	Merceravg 60¢	$3	$3.47	+$0.47	59% 6957-4888 (11845)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	The Citadelavg 46¢	$4.6	$3.25	-$1.35	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
US User7429CTR<$100	The Citadelavg 36¢	$3.6	$1.1	-$2.5	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
RN1CTR<$100	The Citadelavg 29¢	$1.08	$0.41	-$0.67	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	The Citadelavg 11¢	$0.37	$0.37	-$0	49% 1166-1197 (2363)

mde4life1986ARB<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$4,894.91

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$774.72

Record

49%

153-157 (310)

Both legs:

The Citadel$3,578.3535.6¢-$614.21

Mercer$1,316.5659.8¢-$160.51

RLWG<$100

Mercer

Invested

$25.25

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$4.6

Record

50%

7913-7939 (15852)

averagejoetraders<$100

Mercer

Invested

$6.6

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$2.3

Record

56%

539-426 (965)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Mercer

Invested

$6.42

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

427-383 (810)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$6.86

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$1.54

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

13897651<$100

Mercer

Invested

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.47

Record

59%

6957-4888 (11845)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$4.6

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$1.35

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

User7429CTR<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$3.6

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$2.5

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

RN1CTR<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

forecastication4CTR<$100

The Citadel

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1166-1197 (2363)

Research grade

AvoidThe Citadel at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

The Citadel

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Mercer 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that The Citadel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.