Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (93%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State: O/U 61.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 7.0¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$48.06

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 7¢

-88% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,905

Combined PnL+$89.93

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,876

Combined PnL-$137.99

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 56.9¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$172.56	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IM imjustkenisghey	Overavg 43¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$122.06	48% 34-37 (71)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 44¢	$227.31	$209.39	-$17.93	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 43¢	$114.03	$107.4	-$6.63	47% 899-999 (1898)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 40¢	$80	$80	+$0	50% 3806-3775 (7581)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Underavg 60¢	$133.2	$47.73	-$85.47	54% 286-244 (530)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$42.18	$44.4	+$2.22	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
PR primmCTR<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$21.31	$21.77	+$0.46	59% 931-653 (1584)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 40¢	$8.8	$9.37	+$8.62	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.28	+$0.15	22% 179-619 (798)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$0.58	$0.59	+$0.01	55% 5370-4319 (9689)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,168.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$172.56

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

imjustkenisghey

Over

Invested

$2,099.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$122.06

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$227.31

Value

$209.39

PnL

-$17.93

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$114.03

Value

$107.4

PnL

-$6.63

Record

47%

899-999 (1898)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$80

Value

$80

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3806-3775 (7581)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Under

Invested

$133.2

Value

$47.73

PnL

-$85.47

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.18

Value

$44.4

PnL

+$2.22

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

primmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.31

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$0.46

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$8.62

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.15

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.