Cincinnati vs. Houston: O/U 63.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 57¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$249.42

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 57¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,891

Combined PnL+$318.66

Over3 traders

Total Value$403.27

Total Shares931

Combined PnL-$69.24

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$62.61	54% 18337-15440 (33777)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$83.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$146.53
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 55¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$81.81	58% 286-205 (491)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$127.45	55% 784-654 (1438)
HI hi774c	Underavg 52¢	$767.52	$826.56	+$36.9	46% 5279-6123 (11402)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 54.6¢	$717.58	$714.22	-$3.35	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.6¢	$402.58	$413.22	+$10.65
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$315	$301	-$14
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52.6¢	$2.0K	$560	+$72.5	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$2.1K	$361.07	-$68.2	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$40.96	$40.05	-$0.91	51% 4869-4738 (9607)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.15	-$0.13	50% 8396-8445 (16841)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,423.46

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$62.61

Record

54%

18337-15440 (33777)

Both legs:

Over$1,875.2945¢-$83.92

Under$1,548.1751.2¢+$146.53

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$2,999.7

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$81.81

Record

58%

286-205 (491)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$127.45

Record

55%

784-654 (1438)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$767.52

Value

$826.56

PnL

+$36.9

Record

46%

5279-6123 (11402)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$717.58

Value

$714.22

PnL

-$3.35

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

Both legs:

Under$402.5854.6¢+$10.65

Over$31545¢-$14

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,972.5

Value

$560

PnL

+$72.5

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,144.58

Value

$361.07

PnL

-$68.2

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.96

Value

$40.05

PnL

-$0.91

Record

51%

4869-4738 (9607)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

8396-8445 (16841)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.