Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cincinnati, while the market favors Houston (51%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Houston (-10.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati (89%) · Cincinnati at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Houston51¢Cincinnati49¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cincinnati

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati 89%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$50.87

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCincinnati at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston51%

Cincinnati50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati8 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares20,481

Combined PnL+$50.87

Houston1 trader

Total Value$20.4

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0

Cincinnati — 89%Houston — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCincinnati 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCincinnati 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCincinnati 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCincinnati 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cincinnatiavg 48.9¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$11.72	54% 18472-15543 (34015)
nigiri99CTR	Cincinnatiavg 50.4¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$5.53	46% 8764-10458 (19222)
HI hi774cCTR	Cincinnatiavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	46% 5313-6149 (11462)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cincinnatiavg 48.7¢	$1.3K	$895.9	+$23.86	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cincinnatiavg 48.5¢	$970	$526.68	+$24.68	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Cincinnatiavg 49¢	$200.16	$196.07	-$4.08	51% 38190-37427 (75617)
NM NM-PCTR	Cincinnatiavg 49¢	$171.5	$168	+$0	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 49¢	$31.12	$31.35	+$0.22	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
RL RLWG<$100	Houstonavg 51¢	$20.4	$20.4	+$0	50% 8429-8472 (16901)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$4,075.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$11.72

Record

54%

18472-15543 (34015)

nigiri99CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$2,195.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$5.53

Record

46%

8764-10458 (19222)

hi774cCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$2,018

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5313-6149 (11462)

38791873984189CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,256.76

Value

$895.9

PnL

+$23.86

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$970

Value

$526.68

PnL

+$24.68

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

SnakeBallCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$200.16

Value

$196.07

PnL

-$4.08

Record

51%

38190-37427 (75617)

NM-PCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$171.5

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$31.12

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

RLWG<$100

Houston

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8429-8472 (16901)

Research grade

NeutralCincinnati at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Houston 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Cincinnati. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCincinnati 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCincinnati 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCincinnati 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCincinnati 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cincinnati 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.