Spread: UAB (-10.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Charlotte (43%) · Charlotte at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Charlotte
7
Charlotte 43%
$3.6K
-$1.09
54.5¢ → 57¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCharlotte at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pltrkr111CTR | UABavg 45¢ | $995.49 | $984.43 | -$11.06 | 55% 790-658 (1448) |
PR primm | Charlotteavg 55¢ | $974.97 | $983.83 | +$8.87 | 47% 1316-1503 (2819) |
IC ic4cream | Charlotteavg 53.7¢ | $735.8 | $752.95 | +$20.54 | 56% 2788-2199 (4987) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | UABavg 47¢ | $687.74 | $661.13 | -$19.74 | 54% 18479-15550 (34029) |
 nigiri99 | Charlotteavg 55.1¢ | $118.95 | $119.88 | +$0.93 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | UABavg 44¢ | $53.72 | $54.33 | +$0.61 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | UABavg 47¢ | $38.53 | $36.89 | -$1.23 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$995.49
Value
$984.43
PnL
-$11.06
Record
55%
790-658 (1448)
Invested
$974.97
Value
$983.83
PnL
+$8.87
Record
47%
1316-1503 (2819)
Invested
$735.8
Value
$752.95
PnL
+$20.54
Record
56%
2788-2199 (4987)
Invested
$687.74
Value
$661.13
PnL
-$19.74
Record
54%
18479-15550 (34029)
nigiri99Invested
$118.95
Value
$119.88
PnL
+$0.93
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$53.72
Value
$54.33
PnL
+$0.61
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$38.53
Value
$36.89
PnL
-$1.23
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.