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CaliforniaVirginia
RN1CTR<$100CaliforniaCaliforniaVirginiaVirginia
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was California — but Virginia won instead.
Spread: Virginia (-17.5)
Resolved Virginia. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held California. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
California 60%
Total Value
$464.26
Combined PnL
-$3.77
Smart Money Signal
California
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Virginia100%
California0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
California3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares470
Combined PnL-$309.29
Virginia3 traders
Total Value$464.26
Total Shares464
Combined PnL+$305.51
California — 50%Virginia — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Californiaavg 66¢ | $296.46 | — | -$296.46 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
LI LightParadox | Virginiaavg 34¢ | $156.15 | $459.26 | +$303.11 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
RN1CTR<$100 | Californiaavg 56¢ | $6.17 | — | -$6.17 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Californiaavg 66¢ | $6.65 | — | -$6.65 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Virginiaavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $5 | +$2.4 | 50% 3874-3873 (7747) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Virginiaavg 50¢ | $585 | — | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$296.46
Value
—
PnL
-$296.46
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
LI
LightParadoxInvested
$156.15
Value
$459.26
PnL
+$303.11
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.17
Value
—
PnL
-$6.17
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$6.65
Value
—
PnL
-$6.65
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
65
6512395314597884<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.4
Record
50%
3874-3873 (7747)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$585
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x88f24549...bb7831
Slug
cfb-cah-vir-2026-11-14-spread-home-17pt5