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VirginiaCaliforniaVirginiaCaliforniaVirginia
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was California — but Virginia won instead.
Spread: Virginia (-16.5)
Resolved Virginia. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held California. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
California 50%
Total Value
$724.03
Combined PnL
$0.1
Smart Money Signal
California
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Virginia100%
California0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Virginia3 traders
Total Value$724.03
Total Shares724
Combined PnL+$452.44
California2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares714
Combined PnL-$452.34
Virginia — 60%California — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Virginiaavg 37¢ | $264.19 | $714.03 | +$449.84 | 38% 1094-1794 (2888) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Californiaavg 63¢ | $448.76 | — | -$448.76 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Virginiaavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $10 | +$2.6 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Californiaavg 63¢ | $3.57 | — | -$3.57 | 53% 1938-1717 (3655) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Virginiaavg 50¢ | $600 | — | +$0 | 68% 136-63 (199) |
MA
MadridTimeInvested
$264.19
Value
$714.03
PnL
+$449.84
Record
38%
1094-1794 (2888)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$448.76
Value
—
PnL
-$448.76
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
PA
Pan9X<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.6
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
—
PnL
-$3.57
Record
53%
1938-1717 (3655)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$600
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
136-63 (199)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xce2a87a8...f4f615
Slug
cfb-cah-vir-2026-11-14-spread-home-16pt5