California vs. Virginia

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia (43%) · Virginia at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

California2¢Virginia98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Virginia

Consensus Traders

Virginia 43%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$68.77

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 97.9¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralVirginia at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

California2%

Virginia98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Virginia6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,890

Combined PnL+$45.66

California8 traders

Total Value$247.62

Total Shares3,217

Combined PnL-$114.43

Virginia — 43%California — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Virginiaavg 95¢	$901.5	$897.71	-$3.8	70% 74-32 (106)
BA babybells	Virginiaavg 89¢	$624.05	$671.3	+$47.25	31% 212-479 (691)
SM smithagent	Virginiaavg 95.2¢	$122.49	$124.55	+$2.06	45% 707-867 (1574)
HI hi774cCTR	Californiaavg 19¢	$240.73	$114.03	-$126.7	23% 184-622 (806)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Californiaavg 4.4¢	$70.87	$88.96	+$18.09	39% 58-90 (148)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Virginiaavg 81¢	$80.19	$80.19	+$0	49% 541-572 (1113)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Virginiaavg 89¢	$30.55	$30.69	+$0.14	56% 4074-3181 (7255)
NO NotJumpCTR	Californiaavg 42.6¢	$105.8	$30.5	+$1.2	52% 895-837 (1732)
PA Pan9X<$100	Virginiaavg 81¢	$22.44	$22.44	+$0	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Californiaavg 5.2¢	$5.43	$5.8	+$0.36	48% 287-306 (593)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Californiaavg 21¢	$13.23	$5.67	-$7.56	47% 36-41 (77)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Californiaavg 6¢	$1.81	$1.96	+$0.15	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Californiaavg 7¢	$0.49	$0.52	+$0.03	38% 1138-1890 (3028)
RN1CTR<$100	Californiaavg 9¢	$0.18	$0.18	+$0	55% 5474-4481 (9955)

pagliacci4

Virginia

Invested

$901.5

Value

$897.71

PnL

-$3.8

Record

70%

74-32 (106)

babybells

Virginia

Invested

$624.05

Value

$671.3

PnL

+$47.25

Record

31%

212-479 (691)

smithagent

Virginia

Invested

$122.49

Value

$124.55

PnL

+$2.06

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

hi774cCTR

California

Invested

$240.73

Value

$114.03

PnL

-$126.7

Record

23%

184-622 (806)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

California

Invested

$70.87

Value

$88.96

PnL

+$18.09

Record

39%

58-90 (148)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Virginia

Invested

$80.19

Value

$80.19

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

541-572 (1113)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Virginia

Invested

$30.55

Value

$30.69

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

4074-3181 (7255)

NotJumpCTR

California

Invested

$105.8

Value

$30.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Pan9X<$100

Virginia

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

California

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

287-306 (593)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

California

Invested

$13.23

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$7.56

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

California

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

California

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

1138-1890 (3028)

RN1CTR<$100

California

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

Research grade

NeutralVirginia at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Virginia

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Virginia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.