Spread: NC State (-7.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold NC State (60%) · NC State at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

NC State54¢California46¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

NC State

Consensus Traders

NC State 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$36.67

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 54¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNC State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

NC State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

NC State54%

California46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

California2 traders

Total Value$719.05

Total Shares1,006

Combined PnL+$273.27

NC State3 traders

Total Value$437.72

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL-$236.61

California — 40%NC State — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on NC State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNC State 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MarkramCTR	Californiaavg 45¢	$401.78	$638.39	+$236.61	70% 2082-908 (2990)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	NC Stateavg 55¢	$491.07	$254.46	-$236.61	51% 136-130 (266)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	NC Stateavg 54¢	$171.98	$171.98	+$0	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Californiaavg 49.6¢	$119.37	$112.11	-$8.75	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
└ California leg	Californiaavg 49.6¢	$73.96	$58.11	-$17.34
└ NC State leg	NC Stateavg 53.4¢	$53.41	$54	+$8.59
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Californiaavg 39¢	$44	$80.67	+$36.67	42% 2246-3046 (5292)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100	NC Stateavg 53¢	$11.27	$11.27	+$0	46% 437-516 (953)

MarkramCTR

California

Invested

$401.78

Value

$638.39

PnL

+$236.61

Record

70%

2082-908 (2990)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

NC State

Invested

$491.07

Value

$254.46

PnL

-$236.61

Record

51%

136-130 (266)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

NC State

Invested

$171.98

Value

$171.98

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

California

Invested

$119.37

Value

$112.11

PnL

-$8.75

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Both legs:

California$73.9649.6¢-$17.34

NC State$53.4153.4¢+$8.59

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

California

Invested

$44

Value

$80.67

PnL

+$36.67

Record

42%

2246-3046 (5292)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186<$100

NC State

Invested

$11.27

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

437-516 (953)

Research grade

NeutralNC State at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

NC State

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on NC State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNC State 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that NC State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.