California vs. NC State

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold NC State (67%) · NC State at 86¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 31

California14¢NC State86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

NC State

Consensus Traders

NC State 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 85.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNC State at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

NC State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

California14%

NC State86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

NC State6 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares23,110

Combined PnL$-2.4K

California3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares13,303

Combined PnL+$1.2K

NC State — 67%California — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on NC State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNC State 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNC State 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	NC Stateavg 72.9¢	$16.3K	$13.9K	$-2.4K	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
RN1CTR	Californiaavg 27.7¢	$3.2K	$4.4K	+$1.2K	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	NC Stateavg 77¢	$800.47	$813.39	+$12.92	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
└ NC State leg	NC Stateavg 77¢	$601.92	$613.87	+$11.95
└ California leg	Californiaavg 21.4¢	$198.55	$199.52	+$0.97
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Californiaavg 27.2¢	$424.83	$486.36	+$61.54	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
└ California leg	Californiaavg 27.2¢	$246.85	$344.89	+$98.04
└ NC State leg	NC Stateavg 78¢	$177.98	$141.47	-$36.51
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Californiaavg 33¢	$432.81	$426.26	-$6.56	47% 331-377 (708)
TO torta.tech	NC Stateavg 62¢	$372	$372	+$0	63% 8135-4874 (13009)
VeryLucky888	NC Stateavg 72¢	$91.85	$107.15	+$1.91	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Californiaavg 32.7¢	$91.79	$86.98	-$4.81	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
└ California leg	Californiaavg 32.7¢	$46.79	$46.48	-$0.31
└ NC State leg	NC Stateavg 75¢	$45	$40.5	-$4.5
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Californiaavg 28¢	$58.55	$54.65	-$3.9	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
TA takeormake<$100	NC Stateavg 73.6¢	$27.15	$27.44	+$0.29	53% 4136-3598 (7734)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	NC Stateavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.53	-$0.27	85% 5348-927 (6275)
HRTrading<$100	NC Stateavg 83¢	$4.16	$3.38	-$0.78	53% 4726-4250 (8976)

Nooserac

NC State

Invested

$16,299.43

Value

$13.9K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

RN1CTR

California

Invested

$3,215.1

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

NC State

Invested

$800.47

Value

$813.39

PnL

+$12.92

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

Both legs:

NC State$601.9277¢+$11.95

California$198.5521.4¢+$0.97

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

California

Invested

$424.83

Value

$486.36

PnL

+$61.54

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

Both legs:

California$246.8527.2¢+$98.04

NC State$177.9878¢-$36.51

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

California

Invested

$432.81

Value

$426.26

PnL

-$6.56

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

torta.tech

NC State

Invested

$372

Value

$372

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

8135-4874 (13009)

VeryLucky888

NC State

Invested

$91.85

Value

$107.15

PnL

+$1.91

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

California

Invested

$91.79

Value

$86.98

PnL

-$4.81

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Both legs:

California$46.7932.7¢-$0.31

NC State$4575¢-$4.5

AnonymousUsernameCTR

California

Invested

$58.55

Value

$54.65

PnL

-$3.9

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

takeormake<$100

NC State

Invested

$27.15

Value

$27.44

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

4136-3598 (7734)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

NC State

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.27

Record

85%

5348-927 (6275)

HRTrading<$100

NC State

Invested

$4.16

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

Research grade

NeutralNC State at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

NC State

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on NC State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCalifornia 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpCalifornia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNC State 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNC State 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that NC State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.