Butler vs. Marist

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Butler (50%) · Butler at 68¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Butler68¢Marist32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Butler

Consensus Traders

Butler 50%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$38.54

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 67.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralButler at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Butler

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Butler68%

Marist33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marist5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares10,179

Combined PnL+$101.49

Butler5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,328

Combined PnL-$62.95

Marist — 50%Butler — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Butler. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpButler 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrButler 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Butler 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986CTR	Maristavg 30.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$102.94	4% 3-67 (70)
GA Gaditima	Butleravg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$40	48% 274-292 (566)
PU purplegatto	Butleravg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$18.42	68% 2645-1232 (3877)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Maristavg 32¢	$821.25	$821.25	-$0	48% 34-37 (71)
38 38791873984189	Butleravg 67.8¢	$681.85	$678.98	-$2.88	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
PU PuckaBegemota	Butleravg 68¢	$224.4	$222.75	-$1.65	— 10-4 (14)
PA Pan9X	Butleravg 68¢	$102	$102	+$0	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Maristavg 50¢	$1.1K	$64	-$2	69% 132-60 (192)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Maristavg 32¢	$34.96	$35.51	+$0.55	25% 341-1019 (1360)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maristavg 32¢	$40.16	$6.12	-$0	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

mde4life1986CTR

Marist

Invested

$2,228.17

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$102.94

Record

3-67 (70)

Gaditima

Butler

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$40

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

purplegatto

Butler

Invested

$1,271.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$18.42

Record

68%

2645-1232 (3877)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Marist

Invested

$821.25

Value

$821.25

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

38791873984189

Butler

Invested

$681.85

Value

$678.98

PnL

-$2.88

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

PuckaBegemota

Butler

Invested

$224.4

Value

$222.75

PnL

-$1.65

Record

—

10-4 (14)

Pan9X

Butler

Invested

$102

Value

$102

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Marist

Invested

$1,050

Value

$64

PnL

-$2

Record

69%

132-60 (192)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Marist

Invested

$34.96

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$0.55

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Marist

Invested

$40.16

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralButler at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Butler

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Butler. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpButler 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrButler 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Butler 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Butler wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.