Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (75%) · Miami (OH) at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (OH)
4
Miami (OH) 75%
$2.4K
$20.27
68¢ → 69.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiami (OH) at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Miami (OH)avg 68¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$19.76 | 49% 2929-3048 (5977) |
38 38791873984189 | Miami (OH)avg 68¢ | $680 | $695 | +$15 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
 nigiri99CTR | Buffaloavg 32¢ | $309.12 | $294.63 | -$14.49 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 68¢ | $25.84 | $25.84 | +$0 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
Invested
$1,343.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$19.76
Record
49%
2929-3048 (5977)
Invested
$680
Value
$695
PnL
+$15
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$309.12
Value
$294.63
PnL
-$14.49
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Invested
$25.84
Value
$25.84
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.