Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 53.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.5K
$31.5
46¢ → 48.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$40.72 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $922.29 | $972.42 | +$50.12 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $240 | $242.5 | +$2.5 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $108.66 | $118.54 | +$9.88 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $93.6 | $99.84 | +$6.24 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $38.28 | $41.76 | +$3.48 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,103.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$40.72
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$922.29
Value
$972.42
PnL
+$50.12
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$240
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$108.66
Value
$118.54
PnL
+$9.88
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$93.6
Value
$99.84
PnL
+$6.24
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$38.28
Value
$41.76
PnL
+$3.48
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.