Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 51.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$5.1K
$64.06
51.2¢ → 53.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 51.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$48.14 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$50 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
BI big8betz | Overavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$19.61 | 50% 68-67 (135) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $796.32 | $779.73 | -$16.59 | 70% 1671-717 (2388) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $980 | $476.1 | -$30.13 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 47.6¢ | $277.67 | $274.17 | -$3.5 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 47.8¢ | $143.79 | $141.28 | -$2.51 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $9.86 | $8.91 | -$0.95 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
Invested
$1,263.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$48.14
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$50
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$19.61
Record
50%
68-67 (135)
Invested
$796.32
Value
$779.73
PnL
-$16.59
Record
70%
1671-717 (2388)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$980
Value
$476.1
PnL
-$30.13
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$277.67
Value
$274.17
PnL
-$3.5
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
Invested
$143.79
Value
$141.28
PnL
-$2.51
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$9.86
Value
$8.91
PnL
-$0.95
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.