Buffalo vs. Ball State: O/U 49.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 57¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$11.5K
$57.81
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Overavg 57¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$57.04 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$0 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 42.7¢ | $566.85 | $571.11 | +$4.26 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $150.15 | $146.66 | -$3.49 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $88.92 | $88.92 | -$0 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
Invested
$6,502.45
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$57.04
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$4,182.18
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
Invested
$566.85
Value
$571.11
PnL
+$4.26
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$150.15
Value
$146.66
PnL
-$3.49
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$88.92
Value
$88.92
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.