Spread: Ball State (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (67%) · Buffalo at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Buffalo
6
Buffalo 67%
$2.4K
$150.7
63.6¢ → 93.5¢
+47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuffalo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Buffaloavg 63.2¢ | $826.71 | $1.2K | +$396.12 | 57% 4077-3095 (7172) |
65 6512395314597884 | Buffaloavg 64¢ | $384 | $561 | +$177 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
38 38791873984189 | Buffaloavg 64¢ | $320 | $467.5 | +$147.5 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
BI biying88888CTR | Ball Stateavg 37¢ | $368.15 | $64.68 | -$303.47 | 37% 121-204 (325) |
CM cm2897CTR | Ball Stateavg 35.7¢ | $339.25 | $61.69 | -$277.57 | 49% 1112-1143 (2255) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Buffaloavg 65¢ | $25.35 | $36.47 | +$11.12 | 49% 698-741 (1439) |
RN1Invested
$826.71
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$396.12
Record
57%
4077-3095 (7172)
Invested
$384
Value
$561
PnL
+$177
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$320
Value
$467.5
PnL
+$147.5
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$368.15
Value
$64.68
PnL
-$303.47
Record
37%
121-204 (325)
Invested
$339.25
Value
$61.69
PnL
-$277.57
Record
49%
1112-1143 (2255)
Invested
$25.35
Value
$36.47
PnL
+$11.12
Record
49%
698-741 (1439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.