Spread: Ball State (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (29%) · Buffalo at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Buffalo
7
Buffalo 29%
$3.7K
$288.62
44.4¢ → 52.5¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuffalo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Buffaloavg 43.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$283.18 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Ball Stateavg 57.8¢ | $681.51 | $696.2 | +$14.69 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 RN1CTR | Ball Stateavg 58¢ | $378.69 | $385.02 | +$6.33 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Ball Stateavg 55.5¢ | $282.51 | $299.93 | +$17.42 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
PR primmCTR | Ball Stateavg 55.5¢ | $183.86 | $195.29 | +$11.43 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
 VeryLucky888 | Buffaloavg 53¢ | $218.36 | $177.16 | -$41.2 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
CM cm2897CTR<$100 | Ball Stateavg 57¢ | $21.66 | $18.43 | -$3.23 | 49% 1112-1143 (2255) |
Invested
$1,615.04
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$283.18
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$681.51
Value
$696.2
PnL
+$14.69
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
RN1CTRInvested
$378.69
Value
$385.02
PnL
+$6.33
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$282.51
Value
$299.93
PnL
+$17.42
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$183.86
Value
$195.29
PnL
+$11.43
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
VeryLucky888Invested
$218.36
Value
$177.16
PnL
-$41.2
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$21.66
Value
$18.43
PnL
-$3.23
Record
49%
1112-1143 (2255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.