Spread: Buffalo (-4.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (44%) · Buffalo at 100¢ · $899 held · ended Nov 12

Buffalo>99¢Ball State<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 44%

Total Value

$899.24

Combined PnL

$78.48

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 99.6¢

+56% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo100%

Ball State0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo4 traders

Total Value$732.26

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL+$46.39

Ball State5 traders

Total Value$166.99

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$32.09

Buffalo — 44%Ball State — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Ball State 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Buffaloavg 68¢	$410.72	$410.72	+$0	52% 2592-2431 (5023)
JU justaluckydude	Buffaloavg 64.9¢	$166.05	$174.08	+$8.03	39% 233-367 (600)
65 6512395314597884	Buffaloavg 51¢	$97.85	$130.46	+$32.61	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ball Stateavg 32¢	$232.77	$68.92	+$61.15	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Ball Stateavg 35¢	$80.85	$60.06	-$20.79	44% 143-184 (327)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Ball Stateavg 32¢	$28.15	$22.87	-$5.28	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
PR primm<$100	Buffaloavg 45¢	$11.25	$17	+$5.75	61% 871-568 (1439)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Ball Stateavg 32¢	$16	$13	-$3	55% 367-301 (668)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ball Stateavg 26¢	$2.13	$2.13	+$0	31% 441-967 (1408)

CUTJALENHURTS

Buffalo

Invested

$410.72

Value

$410.72

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2592-2431 (5023)

justaluckydude

Buffalo

Invested

$166.05

Value

$174.08

PnL

+$8.03

Record

39%

233-367 (600)

6512395314597884

Buffalo

Invested

$97.85

Value

$130.46

PnL

+$32.61

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

38791873984189CTR

Ball State

Invested

$232.77

Value

$68.92

PnL

+$61.15

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Ball State

Invested

$80.85

Value

$60.06

PnL

-$20.79

Record

44%

143-184 (327)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Ball State

Invested

$28.15

Value

$22.87

PnL

-$5.28

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

primm<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$11.25

Value

$17

PnL

+$5.75

Record

61%

871-568 (1439)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Ball State

Invested

$16

Value

$13

PnL

-$3

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Ball State

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Research grade

NeutralBuffalo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Ball State 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.