Spread: Buffalo (-3.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (33%) · Ball State at 62¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Ball State
6
Ball State 33%
$10.6K
-$7.59
61.9¢ → 61.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBall State at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Ball Stateavg 61.9¢ | $6.1K | $6.1K | -$40.36 | 50% 53-52 (105) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Buffaloavg 38.2¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$27.79 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Buffaloavg 38.2¢ | $881.41 | $888.58 | +$7.17 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
NM NM-PCTR | Buffaloavg 39¢ | $136.5 | $136.5 | +$0 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Buffaloavg 39¢ | $82.29 | $80.18 | -$2.11 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Ball Stateavg 61¢ | $14.24 | $14.16 | -$0.08 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
Invested
$6,146.53
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$40.36
Record
50%
53-52 (105)
Invested
$3,303.72
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$27.79
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$881.41
Value
$888.58
PnL
+$7.17
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$136.5
Value
$136.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$82.29
Value
$80.18
PnL
-$2.11
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
Invested
$14.24
Value
$14.16
PnL
-$0.08
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.