Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Buffalo, while the market favors Ball State (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Buffalo (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (83%) · Buffalo at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Buffalo
6
Buffalo 83%
$2.6K
$24.6
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuffalo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Buffaloavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.84 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Ball Stateavg 51¢ | $505.9 | $500.94 | -$4.96 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Buffaloavg 48¢ | $484.87 | $489.92 | +$5.05 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
NM NM-PCTR | Buffaloavg 48¢ | $168 | $173.25 | +$5.25 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
GC GC-PCTR | Buffaloavg 48¢ | $168 | $173.25 | +$5.25 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Buffaloavg 48¢ | $37.44 | $38.61 | +$1.17 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,232.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.84
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$505.9
Value
$500.94
PnL
-$4.96
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$484.87
Value
$489.92
PnL
+$5.05
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$168
Value
$173.25
PnL
+$5.25
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$168
Value
$173.25
PnL
+$5.25
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
Invested
$37.44
Value
$38.61
PnL
+$1.17
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.