Spread: Western Michigan (-14.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (75%) · Bowling Green at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Bowling Green
4
Bowling Green 75%
$1.7K
-$12.35
54.4¢ → 54¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBowling Green at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Bowling Greenavg 54.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$13.65 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 54¢ | $53.46 | $53.46 | +$0 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Western Michiganavg 46¢ | $41.19 | $41.19 | +$0 | 51% 226-220 (446) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 52¢ | $33.8 | $35.1 | +$1.3 | 47% 2510-2803 (5313) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,633.65
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$13.65
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$53.46
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$41.19
Value
$41.19
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
226-220 (446)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$35.1
PnL
+$1.3
Record
47%
2510-2803 (5313)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.