Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (60%) · Western Michigan at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Bowling Green11¢Western Michigan89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$338.37

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 89.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green11%

Western Michigan90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,082

Combined PnL-$511.24

Bowling Green4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,662

Combined PnL+$172.87

Western Michigan — 60%Bowling Green — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bowling Green) and the top 1000 (4 on Western Michigan) disagree here.

whaleWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBowling Green 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE Herdonia	Western Michiganavg 83.6¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$500.61	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bowling Greenavg 16¢	$724.96	$928.85	+$203.89	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Western Michiganavg 79.2¢	$386.11	$372.53	-$13.58	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 79.2¢	$257.49	$261.63	+$4.13
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 22.6¢	$128.62	$110.9	-$17.72
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Western Michiganavg 81¢	$258.5	$253.71	-$4.79	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
RN1	Western Michiganavg 72¢	$114.79	$134.71	+$19.93	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Bowling Greenavg 17¢	$139.4	$131.2	-$4.1	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
OM omnibus-076daa	Western Michiganavg 84¢	$133.55	$108.91	-$24.64	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Western Michiganavg 88¢	$99.44	$98.31	-$1.13	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 16¢	$17.59	$34.63	+$17.04	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 37.4¢	$75.06	$31.09	-$43.97	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Western Michiganavg 83¢	$17.43	$17.43	+$0	58% 28707-21186 (49893)

Herdonia

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,768.22

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$500.61

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$724.96

Value

$928.85

PnL

+$203.89

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$386.11

Value

$372.53

PnL

-$13.58

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

Both legs:

Western Michigan$257.4979.2¢+$4.13

Bowling Green$128.6222.6¢-$17.72

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Western Michigan

Invested

$258.5

Value

$253.71

PnL

-$4.79

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

RN1

Western Michigan

Invested

$114.79

Value

$134.71

PnL

+$19.93

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Forecastication2CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$139.4

Value

$131.2

PnL

-$4.1

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

omnibus-076daa

Western Michigan

Invested

$133.55

Value

$108.91

PnL

-$24.64

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

BillBenter2026<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$99.44

Value

$98.31

PnL

-$1.13

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$17.59

Value

$34.63

PnL

+$17.04

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$75.06

Value

$31.09

PnL

-$43.97

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Western Michigan

Invested

$17.43

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bowling Green) and the top 1000 (4 on Western Michigan) disagree here.

whaleWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBowling Green 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Western Michigan 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.