Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Boston College vs. Duke: O/U 51.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 38¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.7K
$315.73
56¢ → 37.5¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Underavg 56¢ | $3.1K | $3.4K | +$338.29 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 54.8¢ | $157.93 | $141.12 | -$16.81 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $80.08 | $72.93 | -$7.15 | 54% 2992-2575 (5567) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 42.5¢ | $4.25 | $5.1 | +$0.85 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.74 | +$0.54 | 50% 7034-7032 (14066) |
Invested
$3,109.72
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$338.29
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
Invested
$157.93
Value
$141.12
PnL
-$16.81
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$80.08
Value
$72.93
PnL
-$7.15
Record
54%
2992-2575 (5567)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.85
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.74
PnL
+$0.54
Record
50%
7034-7032 (14066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.