Boston College vs. Duke: O/U 49.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 52¢ · $31K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$30.9K
$758.61
50.1¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Underavg 50¢ | $15.0K | $15.4K | +$450 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$43.09 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
PR primm | Underavg 50¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$90 | 46% 1072-1263 (2335) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 50¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$87 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | +$30.09 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Underavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$56.25 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 51¢ | $128.42 | $129.78 | +$1.36 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Underavg 51¢ | $122.91 | $124.12 | +$1.21 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $12.13 | -$0.38 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
NooseracInvested
$15,000
Value
$15.4K
PnL
+$450
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
Invested
$4,408.88
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$43.09
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$90
Record
46%
1072-1263 (2335)
Invested
$2,900
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$87
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,718.55
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$30.09
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$1,875
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$56.25
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$128.42
Value
$129.78
PnL
+$1.36
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$122.91
Value
$124.12
PnL
+$1.21
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$12.13
PnL
-$0.38
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Nooserac
Under — $15.4K
HomeRunHazard
Under — $4.5K
primm
Under — $3.1K
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
Under — $3.0K
VeryLucky888
Under — $2.6K
0x0A77exmm
Under — $1.9K
LeLynxMalynx
Under — $129.78
0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks
Under — $124.12
Forecastication2
CTROver — $12.13