Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Boston College vs. Duke: O/U 47.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 35¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$4.4K
-$6.73
44.5¢ → 35¢
-21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $5.2K | $2.3K | +$25.86 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$46.28 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 67¢ | $198.32 | $217.56 | +$19.24 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $88 | $88 | +$0 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.9¢ | $89.3 | $87.56 | -$1.74 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $41.55 | $37.31 | -$3.82 | 53% 403-355 (758) |
Invested
$5,172.62
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$25.86
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,746.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$46.28
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$198.32
Value
$217.56
PnL
+$19.24
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Invested
$88
Value
$88
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
Invested
$89.3
Value
$87.56
PnL
-$1.74
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$41.55
Value
$37.31
PnL
-$3.82
Record
53%
403-355 (758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.