Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Duke, while the market favors Boston College (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Duke (-7.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Duke (67%) · Duke at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Duke
3
Duke 67%
$1.6K
-$21.5
47¢ → 46¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDuke at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Boston College 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Boston Collegeavg 54¢ | $572.9 | $573.22 | +$0.33 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Dukeavg 47.9¢ | $554.43 | $528.19 | -$27.09 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR | Dukeavg 46¢ | $484.05 | $484.05 | +$5.26 | 54% 255-218 (473) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.