Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Boston College, while the market favors Duke (67%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Duke (-6.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Boston College (71%) · Boston College at 33¢ · $873 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Boston College
7
Boston College 71%
$872.5
$47.53
47.6¢ → 33¢
-31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBoston College at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Duke 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 hammyandcheeseCTR | Boston Collegeavg 48¢ | $480 | $530 | +$50 | 55% 390-318 (708) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Boston Collegeavg 47¢ | $271.19 | $268.31 | -$2.88 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Dukeavg 53¢ | $31.22 | $31.51 | +$0.29 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Boston Collegeavg 47¢ | $31.02 | $30.69 | -$0.33 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Boston Collegeavg 47¢ | $7.05 | $6.98 | -$0.07 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Dukeavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.9 | +$0.25 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Boston Collegeavg 46¢ | $1.84 | $2.12 | +$0.28 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
hammyandcheeseCTRInvested
$480
Value
$530
PnL
+$50
Record
55%
390-318 (708)
Invested
$271.19
Value
$268.31
PnL
-$2.88
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$31.22
Value
$31.51
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
Invested
$31.02
Value
$30.69
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$2.12
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.