Boston College vs. Duke

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Duke (67%) · Duke at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 31

Boston College<1¢Duke>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Duke

Consensus Traders

Duke 67%

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 99.7¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Boston College0%

Duke100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke6 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares21,181

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Boston College3 traders

Total Value$123.92

Total Shares6,824

Combined PnL-$459.95

Duke — 67%Boston College — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoston College 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuke 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Duke 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KaneAnalytics	Dukeavg 86¢	$15.6K	$17.8K	+$2.2K	52% 361-338 (699)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Dukeavg 87¢	$910.38	$989.36	+$78.98	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
hammyandcheese	Dukeavg 91¢	$910	$981.5	+$71.5	55% 390-318 (708)
BI BillBenter2026	Dukeavg 79.8¢	$454.67	$559.46	+$104.79	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
OM omoi0i0	Dukeavg 99¢	$383.97	$380.82	-$3.15	65% 1505-813 (2318)
TO topdogbigboi	Dukeavg 72.6¢	$91.06	$120.18	+$29.12	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
NooseracCTR	Boston Collegeavg 13¢	$58.96	$79.57	+$20.61	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
GA gagarin59CTR	Boston Collegeavg 22¢	$522.06	$43.9	-$478.16	51% 699-666 (1365)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Boston Collegeavg 1.9¢	$2.85	$0.45	-$2.4	59% 45889-32231 (78120)

KaneAnalytics

Duke

Invested

$15,566.86

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

52%

361-338 (699)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Duke

Invested

$910.38

Value

$989.36

PnL

+$78.98

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

hammyandcheese

Duke

Invested

$910

Value

$981.5

PnL

+$71.5

Record

55%

390-318 (708)

BillBenter2026

Duke

Invested

$454.67

Value

$559.46

PnL

+$104.79

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

omoi0i0

Duke

Invested

$383.97

Value

$380.82

PnL

-$3.15

Record

65%

1505-813 (2318)

topdogbigboi

Duke

Invested

$91.06

Value

$120.18

PnL

+$29.12

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

NooseracCTR

Boston College

Invested

$58.96

Value

$79.57

PnL

+$20.61

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

gagarin59CTR

Boston College

Invested

$522.06

Value

$43.9

PnL

-$478.16

Record

51%

699-666 (1365)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Boston College

Invested

$2.85

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.4

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Duke

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBoston College 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuke 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Duke 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.