Baylor vs. UCF: O/U 47.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 55¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 30

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$169.54

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 54.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares17,951

Combined PnL+$195.07

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,827

Combined PnL-$25.53

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.4¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$145.6	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
PW PwaddlerCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$16.76	48% 412-452 (864)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51.5¢	$2.8K	$1.6K	+$51.29	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
IC ic4cream	Overavg 52¢	$872.56	$864.17	-$8.39	59% 2630-1846 (4476)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$455	-$5.3	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
HI hi774c	Overavg 51¢	$218.7	$225.13	+$6.43	52% 4713-4425 (9138)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 48¢	$186.6	$184.65	-$1.94	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$31.2	$29.58	-$1.63	58% 28414-20974 (49388)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 52¢	$14.04	$14.18	+$0.14	54% 2975-2554 (5529)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$7.05	$7.13	+$0.08	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
MA MarkramCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	70% 2078-905 (2983)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$6,790.25

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$145.6

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

PwaddlerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,609.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$16.76

Record

48%

412-452 (864)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$2,769.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$51.29

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$872.56

Value

$864.17

PnL

-$8.39

Record

59%

2630-1846 (4476)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,440

Value

$455

PnL

-$5.3

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$218.7

Value

$225.13

PnL

+$6.43

Record

52%

4713-4425 (9138)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$186.6

Value

$184.65

PnL

-$1.94

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.2

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$1.63

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.18

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

2975-2554 (5529)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

MarkramCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

70%

2078-905 (2983)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.