Spread: Baylor (-2.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (86%) · UCF at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UCF
7
UCF 86%
$1.3K
$2.31
51.1¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCF at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | UCFavg 51.2¢ | $554.52 | $558.26 | +$3.74 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
HO HomeRunHazard | UCFavg 51¢ | $315.87 | $349.93 | +$34.06 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Bayloravg 48.9¢ | $345.73 | $307.55 | -$38.19 | 50% 6944-6931 (13875) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | UCFavg 51¢ | $21.76 | $21.98 | +$0.21 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | UCFavg 51¢ | $16.83 | $18.65 | +$1.82 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | UCFavg 52¢ | $7.28 | $7.91 | +$0.63 | 54% 2958-2540 (5498) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | UCFavg 51¢ | $3.06 | $3.09 | +$0.03 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$554.52
Value
$558.26
PnL
+$3.74
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$315.87
Value
$349.93
PnL
+$34.06
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$345.73
Value
$307.55
PnL
-$38.19
Record
50%
6944-6931 (13875)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$21.98
PnL
+$0.21
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$18.65
PnL
+$1.82
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
2958-2540 (5498)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.03
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.