Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Baylor (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Baylor (-1.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (100%) · UCF at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UCF
4
UCF 100%
$2.3K
$39.29
48.3¢ → 48¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCF at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Baylor 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | UCFavg 48.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$41.03 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | UCFavg 48¢ | $480 | $480 | +$0 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | UCFavg 49¢ | $60.76 | $59.52 | -$1.24 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | UCFavg 49¢ | $28.06 | $27.88 | -$0.51 | 54% 2976-2555 (5531) |
Invested
$1,829.59
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$41.03
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$480
Value
$480
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$60.76
Value
$59.52
PnL
-$1.24
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$28.06
Value
$27.88
PnL
-$0.51
Record
54%
2976-2555 (5531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.