Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Baylor (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Baylor vs. UCF
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (67%) · UCF at 48¢ · $996 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UCF
6
UCF 67%
$995.61
$14.04
47.3¢ → 47.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCF at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Baylor 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | UCFavg 47¢ | $595.02 | $601.35 | +$6.33 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR | UCFavg 48¢ | $200.96 | $203.03 | +$2.07 | 58% 41361-29991 (71352) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Bayloravg 50¢ | $140.58 | $144.8 | +$4.22 | 53% 363-319 (682) |
PL pleasent242<$100 | Bayloravg 49¢ | $21.91 | $23.02 | +$1.56 | 52% 661-601 (1262) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | UCFavg 47¢ | $16.92 | $17.1 | +$0.18 | 58% 28303-20884 (49187) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | UCFavg 51¢ | $6.63 | $6.3 | -$0.32 | 54% 2953-2534 (5487) |
Invested
$595.02
Value
$601.35
PnL
+$6.33
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$200.96
Value
$203.03
PnL
+$2.07
Record
58%
41361-29991 (71352)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$140.58
Value
$144.8
PnL
+$4.22
Record
53%
363-319 (682)
Invested
$21.91
Value
$23.02
PnL
+$1.56
Record
52%
661-601 (1262)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
28303-20884 (49187)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
2953-2534 (5487)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.